Walsall v Port Vale
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Walsall win
- 57%
- Draw
- 21%
- Port Vale win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Walsall to win
Model probability 57%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Walsall strength rating 1459 v Port Vale 1424
- Walsall home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Port Vale away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Walsall +4 v Port Vale -4
- Walsall unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 69%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model69%
Component disagreement: 16.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 57% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 57%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.