Estoril v Casa Pia
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 17:00
Data: excellent
- Estoril win
- 53%
- Draw
- 22%
- Casa Pia win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Estoril to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Estoril strength rating 1592 v Casa Pia 1569
- Estoril home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Casa Pia away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Estoril -6 v Casa Pia -14
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 53%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 9.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.