Kelty Hearts v Edinburgh City
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Kelty Hearts win
- 42%
- Draw
- 23%
- Edinburgh City win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Kelty Hearts to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Kelty Hearts strength rating 1426 v Edinburgh City 1447
- Kelty Hearts home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Edinburgh City away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: Edinburgh City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 9.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.