Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Greenock Morton
18+Scottish Championship · Fri 25 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Inverness Caledonian Thistle win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Greenock Morton win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Inverness Caledonian Thistle to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Inverness Caledonian Thistle strength rating 1553 v Greenock Morton 1519
- Inverness Caledonian Thistle home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Greenock Morton away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Inverness Caledonian Thistle -2 v Greenock Morton -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 52%, goals 53%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 15.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.