AZ Alkmaar v Telstar
18+Eredivisie · Sun 20 Sept, 12:30
Data: excellent
- AZ Alkmaar win
- 64%
- Draw
- 17%
- Telstar win
- 20%
FootyGrounds prediction
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 64%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score61 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AZ Alkmaar strength rating 1669 v Telstar 1595
- AZ Alkmaar home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Telstar away form: 1W 1D 1L, 2 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AZ Alkmaar +11 v Telstar -6
- AZ Alkmaar unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 64% (Elo 59%, goals 70%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Telstar have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model59%
- Goals model70%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 11.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 64% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 64%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.