Barrow v Wealdstone
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Barrow win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Wealdstone win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barrow to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barrow strength rating 1364 v Wealdstone 1367
- Barrow home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Wealdstone away form: 2W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Barrow -2 v Wealdstone -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 47%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 12.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.