Scunthorpe United v Forest Green Rovers
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Scunthorpe United win
- 42%
- Draw
- 25%
- Forest Green Rovers win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Scunthorpe United to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Scunthorpe United strength rating 1371 v Forest Green Rovers 1382
- Scunthorpe United home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Forest Green Rovers away form: 2W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Forest Green Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 8.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.