Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline Athletic
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Stenhousemuir win
- 55%
- Draw
- 23%
- Dunfermline Athletic win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stenhousemuir to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stenhousemuir strength rating 1598 v Dunfermline Athletic 1565
- Stenhousemuir home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Dunfermline Athletic away form: 0W 2D 1L, 1 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stenhousemuir +8 v Dunfermline Athletic +1
- Stenhousemuir unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 52%, goals 53%, recent form 63%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Dunfermline Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model63%
Component disagreement: 11.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.