Athletic Club v Alavés
18+La Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 14:15
Data: excellent
- Athletic Club win
- 43%
- Draw
- 24%
- Alavés win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Athletic Club strength rating 1624 v Alavés 1632
- Athletic Club home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 39%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 8.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.