Birmingham City v Middlesbrough
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Birmingham City win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Middlesbrough win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Birmingham City to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Birmingham City strength rating 1568 v Middlesbrough 1581
- Birmingham City home record this season: 0W 3D 0L
- Middlesbrough away form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 8.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.