Monza v Sassuolo
18+Serie A · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Monza win
- 36%
- Draw
- 23%
- Sassuolo win
- 41%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sassuolo to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sassuolo strength rating 1625 v Monza 1598
- Superior goal difference: Sassuolo +1 v Monza -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 33%, goals 41%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 25.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.