Eastleigh v Carlisle United
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Eastleigh win
- 45%
- Draw
- 23%
- Carlisle United win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Eastleigh to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Eastleigh strength rating 1381 v Carlisle United 1387
- Eastleigh home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Carlisle United away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 51%)
Main uncertainty: Carlisle United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model51%
Component disagreement: 9.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.