Port Vale v Northampton Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Port Vale win
- 38%
- Draw
- 28%
- Northampton Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Port Vale to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Port Vale strength rating 1419 v Northampton Town 1440
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 31%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Northampton Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model31%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 10.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 11/09/2026, 16:20:06), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 11/09/2026, 18:20:05. Read the methodology.