Ross County v Alloa Athletic
18+Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Ross County win
- 58%
- Draw
- 20%
- Alloa Athletic win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Ross County to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score57 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Ross County strength rating 1546 v Alloa Athletic 1509
- Ross County home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Alloa Athletic away form: 1W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Ross County +16 v Alloa Athletic +3
- Ross County unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 53%, goals 61%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Alloa Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Alloa Athletic have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 9.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:06), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.