Partick Thistle v Raith Rovers
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Partick Thistle win
- 38%
- Draw
- 29%
- Raith Rovers win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Partick Thistle to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Partick Thistle strength rating 1575 v Raith Rovers 1591
- Partick Thistle home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Raith Rovers away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 2 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 43%, goals 32%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Raith Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Raith Rovers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model32%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 11.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.