Carrick Rangers v Larne
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: limited
- Carrick Rangers win
- 35%
- Draw
- 27%
- Larne win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Larne to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score16 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Larne strength rating 1648 v Carrick Rangers 1620
- Carrick Rangers home form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Larne +6 v Carrick Rangers +1
- Larne unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 39%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Limited data recorded for this fixture so far this season. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 17.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.