Ammanford v Penybont
18+Cymru Premier · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Ammanford win
- 24%
- Draw
- 21%
- Penybont win
- 55%
FootyGrounds prediction
Penybont to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Penybont strength rating 1660 v Ammanford 1558
- Penybont away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Ammanford home form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 14 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Penybont +8 v Ammanford -17
- Penybont unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Ammanford played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 45%, goals 61%, recent form 69%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model69%
Component disagreement: 24.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.