Leyton Orient v Stevenage
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Leyton Orient win
- 41%
- Draw
- 23%
- Stevenage win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Leyton Orient to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Leyton Orient strength rating 1504 v Stevenage 1515
- Leyton Orient home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
- Stevenage away form: 1W 2D 0L, 6 scored / 2 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 45%, recent form 29%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Stevenage are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Stevenage have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model29%
Component disagreement: 15.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.