Exeter City v Rotherham United
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Exeter City win
- 47%
- Draw
- 24%
- Rotherham United win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Exeter City to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Exeter City strength rating 1433 v Rotherham United 1435
- Exeter City home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Rotherham United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Rotherham United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 13.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.