Schalke 04 v Elversberg
18+Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 15:30
Data: good
- Schalke 04 win
- 42%
- Draw
- 22%
- Elversberg win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Schalke 04 to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Schalke 04 strength rating 1621 v Elversberg 1625
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 29%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model29%
Component disagreement: 16.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.