Dumbarton v Forfar Athletic
18+Scottish League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Dumbarton win
- 46%
- Draw
- 23%
- Forfar Athletic win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Dumbarton to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Dumbarton strength rating 1407 v Forfar Athletic 1420
- Dumbarton home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Forfar Athletic away form: 0W 2D 2L, 3 scored / 10 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 19.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.