Gillingham v Bristol Rovers
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Gillingham win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bristol Rovers win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Gillingham to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Gillingham strength rating 1449 v Bristol Rovers 1458
- Gillingham home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Gillingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 5.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.