Borussia Mönchengladbach v Mainz 05

18+

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good

Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 30%
Draw: 22%
Mainz 05 win: 48%

FootyGrounds prediction

Mainz 05 to win

Model probability 48%

Predicted scoreline

2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Mainz 05 strength rating 1626 v Borussia Mönchengladbach 1591
Superior goal difference: Mainz 05 +3 v Borussia Mönchengladbach -9
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 33%, goals 52%, recent form 75%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 41 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model33%
Goals model52%
Recent-form model75%

Component disagreement: 41.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 48%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.