Queen's Park v Ayr United
18+Scottish Championship · Fri 18 Sept, 18:30
Data: excellent
- Queen's Park win
- 42%
- Draw
- 26%
- Ayr United win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Queen's Park to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Queen's Park strength rating 1532 v Ayr United 1544
- Queen's Park home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Ayr United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 44%, goals 35%, recent form 51%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model51%
Component disagreement: 16.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.