Accrington Stanley v Cheltenham Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Accrington Stanley win
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- Cheltenham Town win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Accrington Stanley to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Accrington Stanley strength rating 1428 v Cheltenham Town 1456
- Accrington Stanley home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 38%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 6.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.