Wealdstone v Gateshead
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Wealdstone win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Gateshead win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Wealdstone to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Wealdstone strength rating 1367 v Gateshead 1350
- Wealdstone home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
- Gateshead away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Wealdstone -3 v Gateshead -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 49%, goals 53%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 10.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.