Chesterfield v York City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Chesterfield win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- York City win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chesterfield strength rating 1442 v York City 1457
- Chesterfield home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- York City away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: York City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 7.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.