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Juventus v Atalanta

18+

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 16:00

Data: excellent
Juventus win
51%
Draw
22%
Atalanta win
27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Juventus to win

Model probability 51%

Predicted scoreline

2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • Juventus strength rating 1629 v Atalanta 1618
  • Superior goal difference: Juventus +2 v Atalanta 0
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 49%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model48%
  • Goals model49%
  • Recent-form model61%

Component disagreement: 13.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02), now 51%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:02. Read the methodology.