The New Saints v Cambrian United
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- The New Saints win
- 59%
- Draw
- 19%
- Cambrian United win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
The New Saints to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Cambrian United 1641
- The New Saints home record this season: 5W 0D 0L
- Cambrian United away form: 2W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Cambrian United +5
- The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 56%, goals 66%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Cambrian United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model56%
- Goals model66%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 10.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 59% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.