AFC Fylde v Carlisle United
18+National League · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- AFC Fylde win
- 54%
- Draw
- 20%
- Carlisle United win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Fylde to win
Model probability 54%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Fylde strength rating 1420 v Carlisle United 1387
- AFC Fylde home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Carlisle United away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AFC Fylde +8 v Carlisle United +3
- AFC Fylde unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 52%, goals 55%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Carlisle United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 3.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 54% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 54%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.