New York City FC v New York Red Bulls
18+Major League Soccer · Fri 18 Sept, 23:30
Data: good
- New York City FC win
- 52%
- Draw
- 22%
- New York Red Bulls win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
New York City FC to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- New York City FC strength rating 1620 v New York Red Bulls 1620
- Superior goal difference: New York City FC +6 v New York Red Bulls -15
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model60%
Component disagreement: 13.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.