Tamworth v Sutton United
18+National League · Wed 30 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Tamworth win
- 37%
- Draw
- 25%
- Sutton United win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sutton United to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sutton United strength rating 1380 v Tamworth 1350
- Sutton United away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Tamworth home form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Sutton United 0 v Tamworth -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 40%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 10.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.