Eastleigh v Southend United
18+National League · Wed 30 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Eastleigh win
- 39%
- Draw
- 26%
- Southend United win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Eastleigh to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Eastleigh strength rating 1381 v Southend United 1407
- Eastleigh home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Southend United away form: 2W 2D 0L, 9 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 41%, goals 38%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Southend United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 5.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.