Norwich City v Bolton Wanderers
18+EFL Championship · Sun 20 Sept, 12:30
Data: excellent
- Norwich City win
- 56%
- Draw
- 20%
- Bolton Wanderers win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Norwich City to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Norwich City strength rating 1560 v Bolton Wanderers 1540
- Norwich City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Bolton Wanderers away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Norwich City 0 v Bolton Wanderers -5
- Norwich City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model68%
Component disagreement: 18.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.