Reading v Notts County
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Reading win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Notts County win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Reading to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Reading strength rating 1510 v Notts County 1498
- Reading home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Notts County away form: 0W 3D 0L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Reading +5 v Notts County 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 54%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Notts County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 5.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.