Airbus UK v Trefelin
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- Airbus UK win
- 65%
- Draw
- 17%
- Trefelin win
- 19%
FootyGrounds prediction
Airbus UK to win
Model probability 65%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score57 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Airbus UK strength rating 1613 v Trefelin 1548
- Airbus UK home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Trefelin away form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Airbus UK -1 v Trefelin -20
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 58%, goals 70%, recent form 70%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model58%
- Goals model70%
- Recent-form model70%
Component disagreement: 12.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 65% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 65%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.