Málaga v Villarreal CF
18+La Liga · Thu 17 Sept, 19:30
Data: excellent
- Málaga win
- 45%
- Draw
- 23%
- Villarreal CF win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Málaga to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Málaga strength rating 1601 v Villarreal CF 1601
- Villarreal CF away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Villarreal CF played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 38%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 16.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.