Carrick Rangers v Crusaders
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Carrick Rangers win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Crusaders win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Carrick Rangers to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Carrick Rangers strength rating 1620 v Crusaders 1627
- Carrick Rangers home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Crusaders away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 46%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 12.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.