Carlisle United v Woking
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Carlisle United win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Woking win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Carlisle United to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Carlisle United strength rating 1387 v Woking 1367
- Carlisle United home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
- Woking away form: 0W 1D 3L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Carlisle United +3 v Woking -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 54%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Woking are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 6.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.