Willem II v Fortuna Sittard
18+Eredivisie · Sat 19 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Willem II win
- 33%
- Draw
- 23%
- Fortuna Sittard win
- 44%
FootyGrounds prediction
Fortuna Sittard to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Fortuna Sittard strength rating 1614 v Willem II 1574
- Fortuna Sittard away record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Willem II home form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Fortuna Sittard -2 v Willem II -13
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 34%, goals 46%, recent form 63%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 30 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model63%
Component disagreement: 29.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.