Auxerre v Brest
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00
Data: excellent
- Auxerre win
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- Brest win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
Auxerre to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Auxerre strength rating 1597 v Brest 1620
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 36%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Brest are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model36%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 8.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.