Glentoran v Dungannon Swifts
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Glentoran win
- 40%
- Draw
- 25%
- Dungannon Swifts win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Glentoran to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Glentoran strength rating 1615 v Dungannon Swifts 1627
- Glentoran home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Dungannon Swifts away form: 3W 0D 1L, 5 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 27%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Dungannon Swifts have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model27%
Component disagreement: 16.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.