Wrexham v Southampton
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Wrexham win
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- Southampton win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southampton to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southampton strength rating 1594 v Wrexham 1554
- Southampton away record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Wrexham home form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Southampton +10 v Wrexham -4
- Southampton unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 34%, goals 51%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Wrexham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 17.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.