Exeter City v Tranmere Rovers
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Exeter City win
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Tranmere Rovers win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Exeter City to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Exeter City strength rating 1433 v Tranmere Rovers 1448
- Exeter City home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Tranmere Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 7.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.