Forest Green Rovers v Wealdstone
18+National League · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Forest Green Rovers win
- 48%
- Draw
- 23%
- Wealdstone win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Forest Green Rovers to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Forest Green Rovers strength rating 1382 v Wealdstone 1367
- Forest Green Rovers home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Wealdstone away form: 2W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Forest Green Rovers +1 v Wealdstone -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 49%, goals 51%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 12.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.