Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Doncaster Rovers win
- 37%
- Draw
- 24%
- Oxford United win
- 39%
FootyGrounds prediction
Oxford United to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score27 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Oxford United strength rating 1516 v Doncaster Rovers 1488
- Oxford United away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Doncaster Rovers home form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Oxford United +3 v Doncaster Rovers -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 33%, goals 39%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. Doncaster Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 21.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 07/09/2026, 16:20:07), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 07/09/2026, 18:20:05. Read the methodology.