Caernarfon Town v Barry Town United
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- Caernarfon Town win
- 45%
- Draw
- 24%
- Barry Town United win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Caernarfon Town strength rating 1667 v Barry Town United 1672
- Caernarfon Town home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Barry Town United away form: 3W 0D 1L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Caernarfon Town +14 v Barry Town United +12
- Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 51%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Barry Town United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 15.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.