Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Mansfield Town win
- 41%
- Draw
- 24%
- Leyton Orient win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Mansfield Town to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Mansfield Town strength rating 1491 v Leyton Orient 1504
- Mansfield Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Leyton Orient away form: 2W 1D 0L, 8 scored / 1 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 37%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Leyton Orient have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 6.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.