Peterborough United v Oxford United
18+EFL League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Peterborough United win
- 29%
- Draw
- 25%
- Oxford United win
- 45%
FootyGrounds prediction
Oxford United to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Oxford United strength rating 1536 v Peterborough United 1468
- Oxford United away record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Peterborough United home form: 1W 2D 2L, 5 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Oxford United +8 v Peterborough United -10
- Oxford United unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 38%, goals 52%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Peterborough United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model38%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 13.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 27/10/2026, 12:20:06), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 27/10/2026, 14:20:06. Read the methodology.