Feyenoord v FC Utrecht
18+Eredivisie · Sun 20 Sept, 10:15
Data: excellent
- Feyenoord win
- 65%
- Draw
- 15%
- FC Utrecht win
- 19%
FootyGrounds prediction
Feyenoord to win
Model probability 65%
Predicted scoreline
4–1 (range 3–0 to 5–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Feyenoord strength rating 1670 v FC Utrecht 1592
- FC Utrecht away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Feyenoord +13 v FC Utrecht -8
- Feyenoord unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 60%, goals 78%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. FC Utrecht are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model60%
- Goals model78%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 23.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 65% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 65%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.